There are three contexts in which one might wish to combine expert judgements of uncertainty: the expert problem, the group decision problem, and the textbook problem. The talk will begin with a survey of the first two, which have the focus of a single decision context, and on which much has been written.  However, little has been written on the third, the textbook problem.  This arises when one needs to draw together expert judgements into a decision analysis when their judgements were made originally in a context-free manner or perhaps for other decision contexts. In many ways the textbook problem parallels that of performing a meta-analysis of empirical studies. However, there are differences. In this paper, we discuss those difficulties and then focus on two closely related issues: How should expert judgement studies be published so as to facilitate subsequent meta-analyses, and how should such meta-analyses be performed?
   

Simon French is the Director of the Risk Initiative and Statistical Consultancy Unit at Warwick University.  Previously he was at Manchester Business School and the Universities of Manchester and Leeds.  Simon has published widely with over 150 publications to his name. He was the founding editor of the Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis.  In the last five years he has published two books with colleagues on Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support and e-Democracy: a Group Decision and Negotiation Perspective.

Simon's research career began in Bayesian statistics, but nowadays he is better known for his work on decision making, which over the years has generally become more applied, looking at ways of supporting real decision makers facing major strategic and risk issues.  In collaboration with psychologists he has sought to support real decision makers and stakeholders in ways that are mindful of their human characteristics. He has worked on the design of decision support systems, again recognising the need to temper the output of models with the needs and behaviours of their users. He also has worked on public risk communication and engagement and the wider areas of stakeholder involvement and deliberative democracy. Simon has worked across the public and private sectors, often in contexts that relate to the environment, energy, food safety and the nuclear industry. He has consulted for many regulators and organisations in the public sector: the Department of Health, the UK Food Standards Industry, the European Space Agency, the Health Protection Agency, and many parts of the nuclear industry. In all his work the emphasis is on multi-disciplinary and participatory approaches to solving real problems and the innovative use of technology in supporting decision making. He has a particular interest in supporting emergency management processes and was a founding member of ISCRAM, the International Association of Information Systems in Crisis Response and Management.  Recently he has focused more on the sense-making and problem structuring that are necessary precursors to decision analysis.