【报告摘要】We provide a new Keynesian model with overlapping generations to study the impact of temporary and permanent increases in fiscal deficits financed by debt rollover policy when interest rates are lower than economic growth rates. We show that the debt rollover policy is feasible in the monetary regime, but leads to very slow-moving debt. This policy generates persistent inflation for a temporary increase in fiscal deficits, but persistent disinflation for a permanent increase. In terms of social welfare, the debt rollover policy dominates the conventional fiscal ruleto finance a temporary increase in fiscal deficits, but is dominated if the increase is permanent。

【报告人简介】苗建军，美国波士顿大学经济系经济学教授，经济理论促进会会士（Fellow of SAET），亚洲经济金融研究局高级研究员（Senior Fellow of Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research（ABFER） ），同时担任Economic Theory、Macroeconomic Dynamics期刊副主编和Journal of Mathematical Economics，Quantitative Economics期刊前任副主编，中国国际宏观经济学会议（CICM）和中国宏观经济研究论坛创始人。1992年毕业于中国科技大学，获数学学士学位，并先后获得中山大学经济学硕士学位、加拿大皇后大学金融学硕士学位和美国罗彻斯特大学经济学博士学位。主要研究方向包括泡沫和崩盘的宏观经济影响、不确定性下的决策理论与应用、理性忽视、商业周期、财政和货币政策、动态合约和连续时间金融。他的研究领域涉及宏观经济学和金融学及其与决策理论、公共财政和产业组织理论等多学科交叉。现有发表刊物主要包括American Economic Review , American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Econometrica, International Economic Review, Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences，Review of Financial Studies和Theoretical Economics等国际顶级经济学和金融期刊。已发表三本经济学专著，曾获得中国国际金融年会最佳论文奖。