【报告摘要】 Climate change is expected to reduce crop yieldsbut knowledae on howit affects aaricultural land use is still limited. This paper empirically investigates the induced cropland adjustments in re-sponding to ong-run climate change in China. Based on county-leve data over severa decades. weemploy a moving-average specification that exploits within-county variation in local climate normalsWe show that cropland expands with rising temperature (precipitation) in cold (dry) areas, while theesti-effect is reversed in hot (humid) areas. The results are consistent with thelong-differencemates and robust to a host of diferent specifications. Besides, local crop mix also evolves with thechanging climate. However, accounting for the crop-mix adjustments, climate change by the mid-cen-tury is still predicted to significantly lower the national calorie provision through induced cropland adjustments, and an average yield growth of 17.6% (21.2%) would be required to offset the associated lossunder RCP 4.5(RCP 8.5).

【报告人简介】崔潇漾，暨南大学经济与社会研究院(IESR)长聘副教授，院长助理。主要研究领域为环境与资源经济学、农业与发展经济学、应用计量经济学，尤其关注环境变迁对农业发展的影响及农业适应性问题。研究成果发表于领域内国际顶尖期刊Journal of Development Economics (JDE,2篇)、Journal of Economet-rics (JoE)、Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (JAERE)、 Journal oiEnvironmental Economics and Management JEEM.2篇)、American Journa of Agricutural Economics(AJAE)。主持国家自然科学基金面上项目、青年科学基金项目。长期担任AEJ、JDE、JAERE、JEEM、AJAE、Nature Climate Change、经济学(季刊)等30余本国内外权威学术期刊匿名审稿人。