【报告摘要】 We develop a tractable growth model to study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of multinational production (MP) across countries. In this model, MP is the vehicle of international idea diffusion: when firms produce in a foreign country, they contribute to the local stock of knowledge. We incorporate idea diffusion into a quantitative framework of trade and MP. The framework yields tractable expressions for bilateral MP flows, trade flows, and the dynamics of technology that we use in our calibration across a set of 54 economies. Counterfactual analysis reveals that reduction in MP costs boosted economic growth, especially in developing economies. We show that a 10-year MP sanction on Russia would reduce the welfare by 7.25%, although the immediate effect is small. We also find that US reshoring policies would have positive wage effects immediately but negative welfare implications in the long run.

【报告人简介】 Sheng Cai is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics and Finance at the City University of Hong Kong. He received his PhD in Economics from Yale University in May 2023. His main research fields are international trade, macroeconomics and economic growth.