【报告摘要】Econometric modeling in spatial autoregressive models often suffers from insufficient samples in practice, such as spatial analysis of infectious diseases at the country level with limited data. Transfer learning offers a promising solution by leveraging information from regions or domains with similar spatial spillover effects to improve the analysis of the target data. In this paper, we propose a parameter-transfer approach based on Mallows model averaging for spatial autoregressive models to improve the prediction accuracy. Our approach does not require sharing multi-source spatial data and can be combined with various parameter estimation methods, such as the maximum likelihood and the two-stage least squares. Theoretical analyses demonstrate that our method achieves asymptotic optimality and ensures weight convergence with an explicit convergence rate. Simulation studies and the application of infection count prediction in Africa further demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

【报告人简介】李文慧，中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院预测科学研究中心助理研究员。主要研究方向包括模型平均、大数据分析与建模。相关研究工作发表在统计学顶级刊物Journal of the American Statistical Association、UTD24期刊INFORMS Journal on Computing等。